Tuesday, October 6, 2026
Short Covering Rally
23%confidence
Partial
Classification Scores
Balanced Day52.0%
Trend Day32.2%
Expansion Day0.0%
Short Covering Rally65.7%
Liquidity Sweep42.0%
Volatility Compression10.8%
Structure & Risk
Recommended Structure
BEST: BULLISH CALL SPREADS
Risk Level
High Volatility
Volatility State
Vol Elevated
VIX
15.05
ATM IV
—
Liquidity Regime
NORMAL
Standard dealer hedging dynamics — balanced order book
Structure Worked
Yes
Market Data
Open
7805.96
High
7844.52
Low
7805.96
Close
7818.93
VWAP
7819.88
Net Move
+0.22
Daily Range
38.6
pts
True Range
70.6
pts
ADR
55.8
ATR
67.6
Rel Volume
0.37
x avg
Expansion Ratio
0.69
Initial Balance Analysis
IB High
7835.09
IB Low
7805.96
IB Range
29.1
pts
IB Broken
Yes
Break Direction
UPPER
IB Outcome
IB broke upside — < 1.5x extension (0.32x IB range)
Outcome Assessment
GRADE
Partial
Accurate
No
Prediction Δ
-0.38
Liquidity Score
42.9
Mean Reversion
51.5
Outcome Notes
Session: Short Covering Rally — Did not materialize ✗ | Structure: Would have profited ✓ | IB broke upside — < 1.5x extension (0.32x IB range) | Actual move: +0.22% | Expansion: 0.69x ADR