Friday, October 16, 2026
Expansion Day Bearish
62%confidence
Correct
Classification Scores
Balanced Day0.0%
Trend Day42.6%
Expansion Day51.7%
Short Covering Rally0.0%
Liquidity Sweep0.0%
Volatility Compression0.0%
Structure & Risk
Recommended Structure
BEST: MOMENTUM TRADES / DIRECTIONAL SPREADS • ✓ CLEAN TREND
Risk Level
Extreme Volatility
Volatility State
Vol Expanding
VIX
20.22
ATM IV
—
Liquidity Regime
NORMAL
Standard dealer hedging dynamics — balanced order book
Structure Worked
Yes
Market Data
Open
$7745.32
High
$7756.84
Low
$7631.77
Close
$7659.44
VWAP
$7696.60
Net Move
-1.20
Daily Range
125.1
pts
True Range
125.1
pts
ADR
61.0
ATR
71.2
Rel Volume
0.44
x avg
Expansion Ratio
2.05
Initial Balance Analysis
IB High
$7756.84
IB Low
$7730.31
IB Range
26.5
pts
IB Broken
Yes
Break Direction
LOWER
IB Outcome
IB broke downside — 2x+ extension (3.71x IB range)
Outcome Assessment
GRADE
Correct
Accurate
Yes
Prediction Δ
0.60
Liquidity Score
5.0
Mean Reversion
10.1
Outcome Notes
Session: Expansion Day — Confirmed ✓ | Structure: Would have profited ✓ | IB broke downside — 2x+ extension (3.71x IB range) | Actual move: -1.20% | Expansion: 2.05x ADR