Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Short Covering Rally
44%confidence
Correct
Classification Scores
Balanced Day7.6%
Trend Day51.1%
Expansion Day5.3%
Short Covering Rally63.8%
Liquidity Sweep38.9%
Volatility Compression0.0%
Structure & Risk
Recommended Structure
BEST: BULLISH CALL SPREADS
Risk Level
High Volatility
Volatility State
Vol Normal
VIX
17.45
ATM IV
—
Liquidity Regime
NORMAL
Standard dealer hedging dynamics — balanced order book
Structure Worked
Yes
Market Data
Open
$7679.01
High
$7748.42
Low
$7668.03
Close
$7712.57
VWAP
$7701.68
Net Move
+0.42
Daily Range
80.4
pts
True Range
80.4
pts
ADR
61.7
ATR
72.2
Rel Volume
0.37
x avg
Expansion Ratio
1.30
Initial Balance Analysis
IB High
$7742.90
IB Low
$7668.03
IB Range
74.9
pts
IB Broken
Yes
Break Direction
UPPER
IB Outcome
IB broke upside — < 1.5x extension (0.07x IB range)
Outcome Assessment
GRADE
Correct
Accurate
Yes
Prediction Δ
-0.18
Liquidity Score
18.8
Mean Reversion
42.4
Outcome Notes
Session: Short Covering Rally — Confirmed ✓ | Structure: Would have profited ✓ | IB broke upside — < 1.5x extension (0.07x IB range) | Actual move: +0.42% | Expansion: 1.30x ADR